Thursday, June 15, 2017

If I Bought Everything I've Analyzed...

I figure now is as good a time as ever to go through my track record and see how I have been doing. I started posting last October and the stocks that I have analyzed have done pretty well since then. I will start from the beginning and go from there, looking at all the stocks I have analyzed and presenting the return of each since the post date.

1. Chipotle analysis on October 20, 2016. The stock price at the time was $405.10 and I said it represented a "beautiful buy point." Before market open today (6/15/17) the price is $459.69. The total return over this time has been 13.43%.

2. SolarCity analysis on October 21, 2016. The stock price at the time was $20.15. It was bought by Tesla and since converted into Tesla shares. At the time of the conversion, shares of SolarCity reached $20.34 and were converted to 0.11 shares of Tesla - which was $184.52. The conversion happened on November 21, 2016. Lets say you have $987.35 invested in SolarCity at $20.15. That'd buy 49 full shares. Those 49 shares would be converted into 5.39 shares of Tesla. Since the merger, Tesla has gone from the $184.52 price mentioned earlier to $380.66 before market open today (6/15/17). That would mean your position as appreciated by 105.74%.

3. My Uninformed Watch List consisted of Weyerhaeuser Co., NuStar GP Holdings, Sotherly Hotels, M&T Bank Corp.,  and Vertex Pharmaceuticals on October 24, 2016. Since then, WY has appreciated 7.93% yielding two dividends at 31 cents each. NSH has gone down by -5.77% while yielding two dividends at 55 cents. SOHO has increase by 35.06% and yielded two dividends at 10 cents each. MTB has appreciated by 36.7% while paying out two dividends at 75 cents each. VRTX has gone up 54.42%. All before market open on 6/15/17.

4. Liberty Braves Group on October 27, 2016. At the time the stock price was $17.25 and has since gone to $24.17. Meaning, the stock has gone up by 40.12%. The Braves themselves haven't even done that well, but their stadium has gotten great reviews thus far.

5. Disney analysis on October 28 and 30, 2016. The second time writing about it was just after news came forward that ESPN had lost 500k cable subscribers. At the time, the price was $93.85 and is now $105.35 meaning there has been a 12.78% increase over the last 8 months.

This is taking a while so it is going to get much short from here on out.

6. Kinder Morgan on October 31, 2016. Price at the time was $20.43. Today it is $18.91. Total return of -7.42%.

7. Barnes and Noble on November 5, 2016. Price was $9.65 and is now $6.90. :(   Had you bought, price would have gone down by -28.5% and given you 30 cents in total dividends.

8.  Chipotle again on November 8, 2016. Price was down to $382.49. Has since appreciated to $459.69 giving the investor a 19.48% return.

9.  EBAY on November 11, 2016. Price was $28.36. Today it's $34.00. It has increased by 21%.

10. American Vanguard Corporation on November 14, 2016. Was $16.00. Today is $18.10. Return of 13.13%.

11. The Marijuana Market on December 19, 2016.  GWPH  -15.2%.  SMG  -7.42%.                  ABBV  12.41%.  CARA  83.86%.  INSY  23.97%.  CBDS  -22.24%.  ACBFF  -7.12%.

12. Rising Tide on December 27, 2016.  NUE  -6.54%.  STLD  -8.55%.  AKS  -42.9%.             WOR  -8.34%.  ROCK  -19.23%.  RS  -10.34%.  XME  -6.52%.

13. Aecom on January 8, 2017. Price was $36.93. Today is $33.19. Return -9.86%.

14. Vulcan Materials on January 9, 2017. Price was $122.72. Today is $127.50. Return of 3.00%.

15. United Rentals on January 10, 2017. Price was $108.90. Today is $104.38. Return of -1.57%.

16. Caterpillar on January 17, 2017. Price was $94.48. Today is $105.54. Return of 11.74%.

17. Kroger on January 18, 2017. Price was $34.79. Today is $26.38. Return of -24.37%. Earnings came out today and is down 13% this morning.

18. Panera on January 19, 2017. PNRA has since went private. Price was $214.50. Today it is $314.45. Return of 47.53%.

19. Valeant Pharmaceutical on February 15, 2017. Price was $16.86. Today is $12.43. Return -22.22%.

20. Chipotle yet again on March 7, 2017. Price was $404.90 and today it is $459.69 for a return of 10.72%.

21. NQ Mobile on March 29, 2017. Price was $3.71. Today it is $3.36. Return of -9.43%.

22. Anheuser-Busch on March 30, 2017. Price was $110.26. Today it is $113.32. Return of 1.67%.

23. Nu Skin on June 7, 2017. Price was $57.25. Today is $58.77. Return of 2.66%.

There you have it. The average return ended up being...7.53%.
Year to date the S&P500    is up 8.17%
Year to date the DJIA         is up 7.70%
Year to date the NASDAQ is up 13.74%

When you compare my average return to the year to dates of the other indices you can see how average I have been. Just a little below average. And to be honest I am very fine with that. I am just getting started at this and am still working out the analysis kinks so an average of 7.53% is good in my eyes.

I want to thank those of you that read this when I post. I have never done anything like this before - the website/blog thing - so it actually means a lot that some people are reading what I'm writing.


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