Sunday - Since I forgot to say anything Friday, I'll start with my uninformed thoughts on the new Fed chair Jerome Powell. From what I heard, if you liked Yellen, then you'll like Powell. He seems to be a good continuation and has been Hawkish in 4 of the last 5 votes to raise rates. Meaning he voted to raise them. Which I think is a good thing. Especially when Janet had said that the Fed's goal is to return interest rates to normalcy. Looking at the big picture, normalcy is equal to about 3% or 4%.
If that is in fact the big-picture goal, then that type of mindset is important. There are signs pointing to a strengthening economy and there are signs pointing to an inflated, false high economy. If the thought is this is a strong and strengthening economy, then this is the prime time to raise interest rates. Inflation is still below the ideal levels - levels set forth by the Fed - which could be a reason for leaving them as is. But, in the event of another recession the go-to move will be to lower them again.
You can't lower them if there is nowhere else to go. I realize Germany went negative, but that shouldn't even be a thought. That just raises a whole crop of new issues.
- The grey bars in the 'Fred' screenshot indicate recessions. Just by doing a quick once-over, you are able to see that, especially in the last 30 years, the reaction is to lower interest rates.
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Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Monday & Tuesday & Wednesday - My portfolio is very sad now. My position in INFY is still pretty effed up from the spread. I was an idiot about CVS and it got worse. I checked this morning and saw it was down $192. Yes. At the end of the day though, it climbed to only down $169. #Nice. Except not at all.
That represents a fall of just about 50%. I am surprised it's only that bad. I didn't check all weekend after the tumultuous Friday and was expecting a fall near or around 70%/80%. Whew? CVS reports earnings in one week before market open and let me tell you, I am nervous. They have had a really rough year and even though they are expected to show growth I have a feeling it will be overshadowed by other things. Like their recent bid for insurer Aetna. At $200 dollars a share, for a total $66 billion+, they will likely have to take on debt and I don't think it is worthwhile. It looked like a retaliation move to the Amazon news the day prior. In two days, last Thursday and Friday, CVS fell a total of 9.81%. BRUTAL. Such an idiot.
I felt very ehh on Sunday, like poop on Monday, and came home with a fever yesterday. Which is why I am so delayed. Excuses, excuses I know. But, there they are.
More portfolio and actual market updates to come this week!