Sunday - Since I forgot to say anything Friday, I'll start with my uninformed thoughts on the new Fed chair Jerome Powell. From what I heard, if you liked Yellen, then you'll like Powell. He seems to be a good continuation and has been Hawkish in 4 of the last 5 votes to raise rates. Meaning he voted to raise them. Which I think is a good thing. Especially when Janet had said that the Fed's goal is to return interest rates to normalcy. Looking at the big picture, normalcy is equal to about 3% or 4%.
If that is in fact the big-picture goal, then that type of mindset is important. There are signs pointing to a strengthening economy and there are signs pointing to an inflated, false high economy. If the thought is this is a strong and strengthening economy, then this is the prime time to raise interest rates. Inflation is still below the ideal levels - levels set forth by the Fed - which could be a reason for leaving them as is. But, in the event of another recession the go-to move will be to lower them again.
You can't lower them if there is nowhere else to go. I realize Germany went negative, but that shouldn't even be a thought. That just raises a whole crop of new issues.
- The grey bars in the 'Fred' screenshot indicate recessions. Just by doing a quick once-over, you are able to see that, especially in the last 30 years, the reaction is to lower interest rates.
Monday, November 6, 2017
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Week of October 30th
Monday & Tuesday & Wednesday - My portfolio is very sad now. My position in INFY is still pretty effed up from the spread. I was an idiot about CVS and it got worse. I checked this morning and saw it was down $192. Yes. At the end of the day though, it climbed to only down $169. #Nice. Except not at all.
That represents a fall of just about 50%. I am surprised it's only that bad. I didn't check all weekend after the tumultuous Friday and was expecting a fall near or around 70%/80%. Whew? CVS reports earnings in one week before market open and let me tell you, I am nervous. They have had a really rough year and even though they are expected to show growth I have a feeling it will be overshadowed by other things. Like their recent bid for insurer Aetna. At $200 dollars a share, for a total $66 billion+, they will likely have to take on debt and I don't think it is worthwhile. It looked like a retaliation move to the Amazon news the day prior. In two days, last Thursday and Friday, CVS fell a total of 9.81%. BRUTAL. Such an idiot.
I felt very ehh on Sunday, like poop on Monday, and came home with a fever yesterday. Which is why I am so delayed. Excuses, excuses I know. But, there they are.
More portfolio and actual market updates to come this week!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)