Yield Curve
The yield curve has started flattening. When comparing January curve to December curve you can see a significant move towards horizontal. In some circles the yield curve is very impressionable.
Why is the yield curve important and why is it [usually] sloping upward? Think about the Expectation Theory. For starters, yield is on the y-axis and maturity on the x-axis. Short term is inherently less risky meaning the interest you receive on bonds will be lower. When you start moving out - 10 years, 20 years, 30 years - the yield will increase to account for the risk of time. Most cases you'll see a fairly significant difference between the 10 year and the 30 year. Why, besides time risk?
Saturday, December 16, 2017
Monday, November 6, 2017
Week of November 6th
Sunday - Since I forgot to say anything Friday, I'll start with my uninformed thoughts on the new Fed chair Jerome Powell. From what I heard, if you liked Yellen, then you'll like Powell. He seems to be a good continuation and has been Hawkish in 4 of the last 5 votes to raise rates. Meaning he voted to raise them. Which I think is a good thing. Especially when Janet had said that the Fed's goal is to return interest rates to normalcy. Looking at the big picture, normalcy is equal to about 3% or 4%.
If that is in fact the big-picture goal, then that type of mindset is important. There are signs pointing to a strengthening economy and there are signs pointing to an inflated, false high economy. If the thought is this is a strong and strengthening economy, then this is the prime time to raise interest rates. Inflation is still below the ideal levels - levels set forth by the Fed - which could be a reason for leaving them as is. But, in the event of another recession the go-to move will be to lower them again.
You can't lower them if there is nowhere else to go. I realize Germany went negative, but that shouldn't even be a thought. That just raises a whole crop of new issues.
- The grey bars in the 'Fred' screenshot indicate recessions. Just by doing a quick once-over, you are able to see that, especially in the last 30 years, the reaction is to lower interest rates.
If that is in fact the big-picture goal, then that type of mindset is important. There are signs pointing to a strengthening economy and there are signs pointing to an inflated, false high economy. If the thought is this is a strong and strengthening economy, then this is the prime time to raise interest rates. Inflation is still below the ideal levels - levels set forth by the Fed - which could be a reason for leaving them as is. But, in the event of another recession the go-to move will be to lower them again.
You can't lower them if there is nowhere else to go. I realize Germany went negative, but that shouldn't even be a thought. That just raises a whole crop of new issues.
- The grey bars in the 'Fred' screenshot indicate recessions. Just by doing a quick once-over, you are able to see that, especially in the last 30 years, the reaction is to lower interest rates.
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Week of October 30th
Monday & Tuesday & Wednesday - My portfolio is very sad now. My position in INFY is still pretty effed up from the spread. I was an idiot about CVS and it got worse. I checked this morning and saw it was down $192. Yes. At the end of the day though, it climbed to only down $169. #Nice. Except not at all.
That represents a fall of just about 50%. I am surprised it's only that bad. I didn't check all weekend after the tumultuous Friday and was expecting a fall near or around 70%/80%. Whew? CVS reports earnings in one week before market open and let me tell you, I am nervous. They have had a really rough year and even though they are expected to show growth I have a feeling it will be overshadowed by other things. Like their recent bid for insurer Aetna. At $200 dollars a share, for a total $66 billion+, they will likely have to take on debt and I don't think it is worthwhile. It looked like a retaliation move to the Amazon news the day prior. In two days, last Thursday and Friday, CVS fell a total of 9.81%. BRUTAL. Such an idiot.
I felt very ehh on Sunday, like poop on Monday, and came home with a fever yesterday. Which is why I am so delayed. Excuses, excuses I know. But, there they are.
More portfolio and actual market updates to come this week!
Monday, October 23, 2017
Week of October 23rd
Monday & Tuesday
Monday = Good.
Tuesday = Bad.
Starting with the good. This actually goes back to Friday when CVS shot up to $76.49 from an open of $74.87. The big of a jump pushed my option position through the roof! If the roof is at 20%, then through the roof is accurate. Three consecutive up days and my CVS position gained back everything that was previously lost and then some. Monday was their ex-dividend date so the 50 cent fall wasn't actually a fall. Actually pushed my position up another 5% to a total gain of 28.60% (+$102.30). Monday was an even better day because my INFY position was almost at break-even! The stock popped almost two percent and my call saw a likewise jump in value.
Monday, October 16, 2017
The Week of October the 16th
Monday the 16th
Work sucked. It was my first real bad day and it is going to be followed by two, maybe three more. I am almost losing my voice from talking so much. I had zero time to check any investments, or even how the market did today. My only bright spot was Cara Therapeutics. Was up 7% in the pre market, but only finished +3.29%. Better than the last two days of lower and lowerer.
As for my option contracts - both fell by dollars. The plural kind. When I have more time and energy and feedback about the day I will do a more rigorous update.
Work sucked. It was my first real bad day and it is going to be followed by two, maybe three more. I am almost losing my voice from talking so much. I had zero time to check any investments, or even how the market did today. My only bright spot was Cara Therapeutics. Was up 7% in the pre market, but only finished +3.29%. Better than the last two days of lower and lowerer.
As for my option contracts - both fell by dollars. The plural kind. When I have more time and energy and feedback about the day I will do a more rigorous update.
Monday, October 9, 2017
The Week of October 9th
Monday the 9th
Heck of a start to my week. AMD took off for the moon this morning and my call was following suit. It opened up 0.88% and I thought, "Ok great. If it stays around this level then that's a solid day. I'll take it." I got busy with work for a few minutes and didn't check again until 9:47am. Up 2.47% after 17 minute and my own position was about about 12%. I was feeling it! Getting excited after seeing the chart going almost vertical was like seeing a unicorn. I was really excited for where it was going. The price was approaching the resistance line and I knew my time was limited. An hour later, the stock was up to $13.72 and it wasn't done. Around 11:00am the price of one share of AMD hit and broke $13.80 and for me that was it. My position alone was up 20% on the DAY and I ended up making the sale and pocketing a near 30% after commission and fees. One hundred and ten dollars, usd.
Actually writing that out makes it seem pretty sad that I am so pumped for that. There are people that you read about making thousands and thousands of dollars on one trade. For me personally, this is what it's all about. I know I'm not going to me making thousands of dollars on my trades. Realistically - with the money I am putting down - I am elated when I'm able to get just one hundred. My hope is that the more I do this, the more I am able to learn about investing, the better I will get at writing (because I'm sure I'm fairly boring), and the more I will be able to make. Hopefully this will document the growth of my portfolio instead of the demise.
Other notable portfolio movements. My INFY contract didn't move at all. It opened up $10.00 but fell to no gain by market close. My position in MACK - Merrimack Pharmaceutical - fell 7.09% taking exactly ten dollars from my investment. Besides that it was a day of little to no movement.
I forgot to mention that I recently acquired shares of SKT and UBNK. I liked where each of them stood financially, technically, and they give a good, consistent dividend. Neither of them moved too much since the buy or today. That concludes my Monday update.
Heck of a start to my week. AMD took off for the moon this morning and my call was following suit. It opened up 0.88% and I thought, "Ok great. If it stays around this level then that's a solid day. I'll take it." I got busy with work for a few minutes and didn't check again until 9:47am. Up 2.47% after 17 minute and my own position was about about 12%. I was feeling it! Getting excited after seeing the chart going almost vertical was like seeing a unicorn. I was really excited for where it was going. The price was approaching the resistance line and I knew my time was limited. An hour later, the stock was up to $13.72 and it wasn't done. Around 11:00am the price of one share of AMD hit and broke $13.80 and for me that was it. My position alone was up 20% on the DAY and I ended up making the sale and pocketing a near 30% after commission and fees. One hundred and ten dollars, usd.
Actually writing that out makes it seem pretty sad that I am so pumped for that. There are people that you read about making thousands and thousands of dollars on one trade. For me personally, this is what it's all about. I know I'm not going to me making thousands of dollars on my trades. Realistically - with the money I am putting down - I am elated when I'm able to get just one hundred. My hope is that the more I do this, the more I am able to learn about investing, the better I will get at writing (because I'm sure I'm fairly boring), and the more I will be able to make. Hopefully this will document the growth of my portfolio instead of the demise.
Other notable portfolio movements. My INFY contract didn't move at all. It opened up $10.00 but fell to no gain by market close. My position in MACK - Merrimack Pharmaceutical - fell 7.09% taking exactly ten dollars from my investment. Besides that it was a day of little to no movement.
I forgot to mention that I recently acquired shares of SKT and UBNK. I liked where each of them stood financially, technically, and they give a good, consistent dividend. Neither of them moved too much since the buy or today. That concludes my Monday update.
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